The situation is getting worse, the tension is only growing. From all sides you can hear talk about a possible war. Indeed, the likelihood is high. Only according to the data of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center for 2021, at least 44 military exercises were recorded in the occupied Crimea with the participation of more than 47,550 military personnel and more than 2,900 units of military and special equipment. We are talking about those exercises that the occupiers themselves write about, but there are also those that are unknown to the public.
What is the forecast regarding the offensive of the Russian Federation?
Head of the Board of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center, Head of the Department of Legal and Foreign Affairs of Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people Eskender Bariiev believes that “saber-rattling” on the borders with Ukraine, in the occupied Crimea and already in Belarus is a reaction of Putin and his entourage to the Crimean platform, the Strategy for the de-occupation and reintegration of the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, the Law On the Indigenous Peoples of Ukraine, the Law on the Repeal of the Law On the Creation of the Free Economic Zone Crimea, the closure of pro-Russian TV channels and the restriction of the political activities of his relative Medvedchuk.
“Ukraine has reached a peak in the negotiation processes regarding the restoration of territorial integrity. If earlier Ukrainian diplomacy spoke about the desirable Geneva format or “Geneva +1”, today, in fact, the format “USA-Russia”, “NATO-Russia”, “OSCE-Russia” has been formed, which, of course, are much wider and more fundamental. Therefore, I don’t understand why some representatives of the Ukrainian authorities declare the restoration of the Normandy format, which it is time to forget about, given the uncertainty and unscrupulousness in Germany’s actions in recent days”,- he said.
Bariiev believes that Russia will not survive a full-scale war. After all, it must be kept in mind that capturing territories is one step, and holding it is completely another.
“For this, there should be a well-prepared rear in Russia, and behind the shock military formations, the training of law enforcement agencies to contain the population in the newly occupied territories, which we do not see yet. Unless, of course, the Russian agents did not conduct training in the structures of the national police of Ukraine in a number of regions of Ukraine as it happened in Crimea. Well, let's hope that the SSU works effectively”,- he explained.
According to the expert, there will be an attempt to annex the occupied part of Donbass, and possibly there will be an offensive from Belarus to Kyiv.
What to do?
There must be strength behind diplomacy. An urgent build-up of weapons is needed precisely on the territory of Ukraine as a symmetrical response to Russia's actions. Yes, the arms race in the border areas. Ukraine urgently needs to provide territory for the deployment of military bases of the United States, NATO and other allies. For Russia, with the state of its economy, it is a very expensive pleasure to transfer weapons and military contingents from various parts of the country and keep them in the border areas. Russia will be the first to announce disarmament.
“The subject of bargaining is the disarmament, on the one hand, of Ukraine, and on the other, the border territories of the western Russia, the occupied Crimea, the Donbas and Belarus. And this will be a demonstration of the victory of the kingdom of jackals in front of its population”,- added the Head of the Board of the CTRC.
But in addition to building up weapons in Ukraine, one should not forget about economic sanctions, which should not only be a subject for de-escalation of the conflict, but also for the fight against the reckless authoritarian regime of Russia.